A deal risk score is a number or color a sales tool gives an open opportunity to show how likely it is to slip or be lost.
How it works in a sales team
Revenue intelligence and forecasting tools build the score from signals they can read: how often the buyer replies, how many people from the account join calls, whether a senior buyer has appeared, how long the deal has sat in its stage, and whether the close date has moved. Managers use the score for triage, to decide which of 80 open deals to look at first. Some tools call the same idea a deal health score.
- How often the buyer replies
- People joining calls
- A senior buyer appears
- Time in stage
- A moved close date
- How often the buyer replies
- People joining calls
- A senior buyer appears
- Time in stage
- A moved close date
The score is built from activity, so it cannot say which piece of buyer evidence is missing or what the rep should say next. That gap is the subject of our deal risk guide.
Reading a red score
Each signal behind a score usually points to one missing piece of buyer evidence. A manager can turn the flag into a question for the rep:
| The score sees | The evidence it may point to | The question to ask the rep |
|---|---|---|
| One contact active for weeks | Nobody else at the account has a reason to want the deal | "Who else loses if this does not happen?" |
| No senior buyer on any call | The signer has never heard the case | "When was the signer last on a call, and what did they ask?" |
| Close date moved | The date was the rep's, and the buyer never tied anything to it | "What is on their calendar, and who put it there?" |
| Long time in stage | An approval step nobody mapped | "Name every step and person between now and a signature." |
A rep who answers with something the buyer said or did has ruled the row out. "I'm sure they're keen" rules nothing out.
Example
This example is illustrative. A rep's $60,000 deal turns red on Monday: one contact active for three weeks, no executive on any call, close date moved once. The manager and rep get on a 20-minute call and walk the deal against the evidence the stage should have. The manager asks the second question in the table, and the rep's answer gives it away: "I think Alex has mentioned it to her." The person who signs has never heard the case. The rep plans a call with the champion to prepare the two points the signer will ask about, says the opening line out loud, and books it for Wednesday.
Related terms
FAQ
What does a deal risk score measure?
A deal risk score measures signals that past lost deals had in common: low buyer engagement, a single contact, no senior buyer involved, time stuck in a stage and moved close dates. It does not see what the buyer said they need, so it estimates risk without naming its cause.
Is a deal risk score the same as a deal health score?
A deal risk score and a deal health score are mostly the same thing. A health score rates a deal from strong to weak and a risk score rates the chance it slips; many tools show one number for both. Both come from activity and conversation data.
What should a rep do with a red deal risk score?
Find the missing buyer evidence before sending anything. Check whether the signer has heard the case, whether the problem has a cost a buyer stated, and whether the close date is the buyer's. Then plan one conversation to fill the first gap.