A forecast category is the label a rep puts on an open deal to say how likely it is to close in the current period, usually pipeline, best case or commit.
Categories, stages and the evidence behind each
Most teams work with three open categories. Pipeline means the deal is real but early and unlikely to close this period. Best case means it is qualified, with a signer identified and a close date the buyer agreed, and could close if the remaining work lands. Commit means the rep expects it to close and will be held to that; Salesloft, for one, expects reps to close about 90% of what they commit. Closed and omitted cover the rest.
Categories differ from stages. A stage says where the deal sits in the process; a category is the rep's call on timing. Because it is a call, two reps can put identical deals in different categories, and the forecast inherits the difference. The fix is to tie each category to evidence the buyer has given:
| Category | Buyer evidence that backs it |
|---|---|
| Pipeline | A stated problem and a contact who wants to solve it |
| Best case | Signer identified, decision process known, close date the buyer agreed |
| Commit | Signer has heard the case, paper process started, no open blocker |
Our deal risk guide and the piece on forecast accuracy build on the same test.
Moving a $75,000 deal out of commit
This example is illustrative. A rep has a $75,000 deal in commit for this month. On a review call with Caty, our AI sales expert for live deals, the evidence check comes up short: the champion agreed the date, but legal has not seen the contract and the CFO has not been on a call. The deal moves to best case. The rep plans two conversations, one with the champion to get the contract to legal this week and one to brief the CFO, and books the first before the call ends.
Related terms
FAQ
What are the standard forecast categories?
Most CRMs use pipeline, best case, commit, closed and omitted. Pipeline is early, best case could close this period, commit is expected to close, closed is won or lost, and omitted is out of the forecast. Teams rename them, but the ladder is similar.
What is the difference between a forecast category and a sales stage?
A stage describes where a deal sits in the sales process. A category is the rep's prediction of whether it closes this period. A late-stage deal can still be best case if the signer has not heard the case.
Who decides a deal's forecast category?
The rep sets it and the manager tests it. The test works best when each category has written buyer evidence behind it, so the conversation in the forecast call is about what the buyer has done, which both people can check.