A commit forecast is the total of the deals a rep or team expects to close in the current period at their stated value, the number they will be held to.
What has to be true for a commit
Commit is the highest forecast category. Salesloft says committed deals should close as expected 90% of the time, and SaaStr puts commit at a 90% or higher chance, "most likely" at 50% to 90% and best case at 10% to 20%.
- 1Best case10% to 20%
- 2Most likely50% to 90%
- 3Commit90% or higher
Those percentages describe the result. They say nothing about what a rep has to have seen, so every rep sets the bar for themselves. One commits three weeks into the quarter; another sandbags and lands surprise deals at the end. A commit holds up when it rests on things the buyer has done, starting with a signer who has heard the case and agreed the date. Our deal risk guide lists that evidence, and forecast accuracy improves when every commit is checked against it.
Testing a commit two weeks out
Illustrative. Two weeks before quarter end, Jordan commits a $120,000 renewal expansion and walks the evidence with Caty on a call before the forecast meeting.
- Caty: Who signs, and when did they last hear the case?
- Jordan: The VP. She was on one call in August.
- Caty: Has she seen the new pricing?
- Jordan: No. The champion agreed the date.
That is a champion's word, so the deal goes to best case for now. Jordan plans a 15-minute call for the champion and the VP, rehearses the opening out loud, and sends the invite that afternoon. If the VP confirms the date on that call, it goes back into commit.
Related terms
FAQ
What is the difference between commit and best case?
Commit is what a rep expects to close this period and will be held to. Best case adds deals that could close if things go well. SaaStr puts commit at a 90% or higher chance and best case at 10% to 20%.
What should a deal have before it goes into commit?
A commit deal needs buyer evidence, starting with a signer who has heard the case and agreed the close date. The buyer's legal or procurement process should also have started, with no blocker on their side still open. A champion's word alone is a best case.
What happens when a commit deal slips?
A commit deal that slips drops out of the period and counts against the rep's forecast accuracy. Review it the same week: which piece of buyer evidence was missing when it was committed, and is the same gap sitting in other committed deals right now.