A weighted pipeline is the sum of every open deal's value multiplied by its probability of closing, used as an estimate of the revenue the pipeline will produce.
Where the weight goes wrong
Many teams set the probability by stage: early stages carry a low weight, negotiation a high one. A $500,000 deal in negotiation at 80% and a $200,000 deal in qualification at 30% give a weighted value of $460,000. Finance likes the number because it turns a list of deals into one figure.
The weak point is the weight. A stage probability assumes every deal at that stage has the same buyer evidence behind it, and reps move deals forward on activity as often as on what the buyer has agreed. A proposal stage deal where the signer has never joined a call gets the same 60% as one where the signer asked for the proposal. Weight by evidence and the figure changes. Our deal risk guide sets out the evidence per stage, and improving forecast accuracy uses the same test.
Reweighting $900,000 by evidence
A team has $900,000 of pipeline in late stages, weighted at 60%, so $540,000 expected. In the weekly review, the manager checks each deal for two things: the signer has been on a call, and the buyer agreed the close date. Deals worth $400,000 pass. The other $500,000 has neither. Weighting the failures at 25% gives $240,000 + $125,000 = $365,000 expected. The $175,000 difference sits in four named deals, and each rep gets on a call with their manager or an AI deal coach such as Caty to plan how to get the signer into the next conversation. (Illustrative example.)
Related terms
FAQ
How do you calculate a weighted pipeline?
Multiply each open deal's value by its probability of closing, then add the results. A $100,000 deal at 50% and a $40,000 deal at 25% give $60,000. Most CRMs apply a probability per stage automatically.
What is the difference between weighted and unweighted pipeline?
Unweighted pipeline is the full value of every open deal. Weighted pipeline discounts each deal by its chance of closing. Unweighted shows the total opportunity; weighted is an estimate of what will close.
How should stage probabilities be set?
Start from your own history: the share of deals that reached each stage and went on to win. Then check whether deals in a stage carry the buyer evidence that stage assumes. Deals that lack it should not inherit the stage weight.